MLS Colorado Rapids coach Fernando Clavijo enters his fourth season as the team’s manager. This past November in the State of the Club address, Rapids Managing Director Jeff Plush explains the retention of Clavijo:

“Fernando will be back for 2008. He has one more year left in his contract. We know that it is a controversial decision and that some people don’t agree with it at all. We respect everyone’s opinion on the subject, but at the end of the day Mr. Kroenke believes in honoring the contracts that we sign, and he believes in honoring his word. I think there are some positives to be learned by that.

Mr. Plush goes on to give Clavijo the dreaded vote of confidence:

…the reality is that this organization can win with this coaching staff and this current team. We did make it to the Western Conference Championship game in both 2005 and ’06.

Let’s be clear, despite the glowing description of the team’s playoff success in 2005 and 2006, the reality is that the Rapids are getting worse with each year under Clavijo:

                               Goals   Goals   Goal
Year  Pts  Wins  Losses  Ties  Scored  Against Differential
2005  45   13    13      6     40      37      +3
2006  41   11    13      8     36      49      -13 
2007  35    9    13      8     29      34      -5

The Rapids offensive output decreased in each of the three years. In addition, the 2005 wins were inflated as the Rapids won 6 of 8 games against expansion teams Chivas USA and Real Salt Lake.

In the three years since Clavjio took the helm at Colorado, Chivas USA went from worst in the MLS Western Conference in 2005 to first in the MLS Western Conference earning 53 points. Colorado went from finishing third in the MLS Western Conference in 2005 to finishing fourth in 2007 and they missed the playoffs.

Apparently, these facts are not important to the managing director. He goes on to state that:

“I’m confident that if we can get some things shored up, demand more of ourselves, train more effectively, and add a little bit of talent, then we can make steps forward next year for sure.”

I have watched 90% of the Rapids games over Clavijo’s tenure, including at least 30 games in person at Mile High and DSGP. I have interviewed the players and coaches on many occasions. I can’t imagine that the Rapids lack of offense is simply a matter of missing a little bit of talent and training.

In my opinion, the Rapids have no obvious offensive plan. They fail to move the ball as a unit. They lose the ball in midfield and their transition from midfield to the attacking third is severely lacking. They do not consistently generate scoring chances; hence their declining offensive production. In short, they play unattractive fútbol.

True to the word of their managing director, the Rapids signed attacking midfielder, Christian Gomez who in the words of Mr. Plush, “Christian is one of the biggest signings in the 13-year history of the Colorado Rapids.”

I must politely disagree with Mr. Plush’s assessment of Gomez. While he was the 2006 MLS MVP, he no longer fit into the long-term plans at MLS powerhouse club DC United. The 33 year old is clearly past his prime and his former team let him go to Colorado for a first-round 2009 pick in the MLS SuperDraft and “future considerations”.

The Rapids gave up almost nothing because Gomez was not perceived to be of value to DC United. Frankly, the Rapids have no players that are desirable to other teams besides Pablo Mastroeni and his market value is limited. The did make some other off-season moves. Too bad none of them were important enough to even report.

I will give credit to the Rapids for executing their plan to train more effectively - they continued to train for an additional 4 weeks during the MLS playoffs - most teams would have just gone home. Credit also for securing at least one offensive-minded player in Christian Gomez.

The problem, as we will see in the 2008 season, is that one single attacking midfielder probably will not provide enough offensive consistency for the Rapids. Consistently successful fútbol clubs require organization, not just “one of the best center midfield duos in the league” [in Mastroeni and Gomez]. Mastroeni has actually played his fútbol at the sweeper position so to call him a central midfielder is not accurate.

With so much now at stake, between the SuperLiga and the CONCACAF Champions League, the Rapids have not shown significant changes in the offseason to warrant any new confidence in their potential success.

I think the revamped LA Galaxy will jump over the Rapids in the MLS Western Conference. Given that Houston has won the last 2 MLS Cups and that Chivas USA was the 2007 Western Conference champion, the Rapids will be unable to break into the top 4 in the conference. This scenario makes it unlikely they will qualify for the MLS playoffs.

They have a coach in the final year of his contract who obviously will not get a new one [if at all] unless the Rapids perform. When the Rapids go into their traditional 8 game mid-summer losing streak, the team will quit on the ‘lame duck’ coach.

When I compare the Rapids to MLS teams that consistently win, such as the Houston Dynamo, DC United, and the LA Galaxy, I see a Rapids front-office that does not seem to understand the sport of professional fútbol well enough to construct a plan to win.